Opportunities and threats in Iran

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NEWS CENTER – As attacks on Iran continue to intensify, the struggle of the region’s peoples for freedom and status will be decisive. In response to Kurdish demands, however, Turkey maintains the potential to join the war at any moment.

The attacks launched by the United States and Israel against Iran have entered their 13th day. While the attacks initially began under the pretext of Iran’s nuclear warheads and later escalated with claims of destroying missile launchers, they are now increasingly concentrated on regions rich in oil and gas reserves, which are seen as the war’s real targets.
 
The attacks, aimed at securing Israel’s safety and clearing the surroundings of the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), have revealed the potential to turn the entire Middle East, particularly the Gulf region, into a ring of fire, especially in light of Iran’s retaliation.
 
The attacks, described as part of a “third world war of partition” aimed at updating the maps drawn a century ago, from Tunisia to Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Iran, have pushed states that refuse to submit or remain outside global control into intractable civil wars. According to this perspective, dominant powers are gradually bringing Middle Eastern nation-states that refuse to obey or share their resources “into line,” while presenting this comprehensive struggle for influence under the rhetoric of spreading democracy and saving humanity. While countries such as Egypt and Syria have been forced into submission, others continue to experience endless internal conflicts.
 
IRAN INSISTS ON THE OLD ORDER
 
Unlike some other states, Iran’s capacity to resist has led dominant powers to seek different strategies. Missile debris reported in countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Azerbaijan, and Turkey is interpreted as an attempt to spread the war across the entire region.
 
Internally, Iran maintains a theocratic system that marginalizes peoples such as Persians, Kurds, Azerbaijanis, Baloch and Turkmen, excludes women from public life and treats non-Shiite sects as rivals. Despite the attacks, the Iranian government has responded not with democratic reforms but with increased repression against its own society.
 
KURDS UNITE
 
Iran continues to target organizations from Rojhilat that defend Kurdish interests. It has also repeatedly carried out attacks against the Kurdistan Region in Iraq, responding to Kurdish demands for democratic life with violence.
 
Although Kurdish forces have stated that they will not side with the United States or Israel, they continue to face repression by the Iranian regime. Kurds, whose culture of resistance predates the current Iranian regime, have recently united their organizations under a single umbrella, strengthening their capacity for resistance.
 
KURDS WILL NOT TAKE SIDES
 
Six Kurdish organizations with different ideological backgrounds have declared that they will not become instruments of the powers involved in the conflict and that they seek to live in fraternity with the peoples of Iran.
 
Drawing inspiration from the paradigm of Abdullah Öcalan, who remains imprisoned in İmralı Prison, Kurdish actors emphasize the concept of the democratic nation. Within this framework, they state that they are part of Iran and seek equal and free coexistence with all peoples, with recognition of their status, language and culture.
 
By adopting what they describe as a “third way” strategy, Kurds say they will not take sides in the current war but remain determined to push for democratization of the regime. Similar to their approach during the war in Syria between the Bashar al-Assad government and external-backed forces, where Kurds pursued their own rights through heavy sacrifices, they now position themselves close to the prospect of freedom in Iran as well.
 
TURKEY COULD BECOME INVOLVED
 
In this context, Kurds—despite posing no threat to any people—may face serious risks during the ongoing process. One of the most significant threats is Turkey’s intolerance toward Kurdish freedom. Having repeatedly opposed Kurdish political gains in both the Kurdistan Region and Rojava, Turkey is likely to perceive any similar development in eastern Kurdistan as a threat.
 
While Ankara is aware it cannot operate as freely in Iran as it does in Syria, it may attempt to draw Kurds into internal conflict through Azerbaijani actors. The deployment of a Patriot air defense system in the Kürecik district is seen as a sign of preparations for possible involvement in the war. Turkey could potentially enter the conflict under the pretext of a “missile coming from across the border,” and the scenario envisioned by the United States and Israel could involve Turkey in the war. According to this view, Turkey’s primary motivation would be to prevent Kurds from gaining rights and political status.
 
KURDS POSSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEDOM
 
Although Turkey has engaged in a peace process internally by recognizing Abdullah Öcalan as a chief negotiator, it continues to view the freedom of Kurds across the four parts of Kurdistan as a threat. Despite the century-old policy losing relevance on the ground, Ankara continues its search for alternatives and maintains its threats.
 
Against this backdrop, the growing political and diplomatic engagement of Kurds worldwide, combined with their resilient military presence, could pave the way for freedom. Within the framework of the democratic nation paradigm, Kurds envision a future in which the peoples of Iran live together as equals in fraternity.
 
The threats are significant, but Kurds who rely on their own strength and refuse to be instrumentalized by external actors are seen as possessing the greatest potential to achieve freedom.
 
TURKEY’S MOST IMPORTANT CARD
 
The peoples of the Middle East should look at the model developed in North and East Syria and recognize that the Kurdish project seeks a model of coexistence.
 
If Turkey resolves the Kurdish question within its own borders and reconstructs its system on democratic principles, it could become a major power in the region. In this sense, Turkey holds a card that could bring freedom to the entire region through the Kurds.
 
Ankara will either use this card to democratize itself and the region, or wait its turn in the tragedy currently being experienced by nation-states.
 
MA / E. Pejder Altan